Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Wisconsin (2024)

Results of a Wisconsin New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 661 registered voters from Aug. 5 to 8, 2024.

All states: registered voters | likely electorate
Michigan: toplines registered voters | likely electorate
Pennsylvania: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate
Wisconsin: toplines | registered voters | likely electorate

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

Almost certain

62%

Very likely

30%

Somewhat likely

3%

Not very likely

2%

Not at all likely

2%

[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted

0%

[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Combined to include leaners to major-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date

Pop.

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

Donald Trump, the Republican

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

50%

46%

4%

Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023 *

R.V.

46

47

7

* Was asked as a single question without third-party candidates and without a follow-up question for undecided voters.

(Combined to include leaners to third-party candidates) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

49%

Donald Trump, the Republican

42%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

6%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

<1%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

<.5%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

<1%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

0%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

47%

Donald Trump, the Republican

42%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

5%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

<1%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

0%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

<1%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

<.5%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

<1%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

(Leaners including third-party candidates, if no candidate selected in previous question) If you had to decide today, would you lean more toward:

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

34

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

34%

Donald Trump, the Republican

9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate

3%

Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate

0%

[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate

3%

Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate

2%

[VOL] Another candidate (specify)

0%

[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices

5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

45%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates) Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

644

Definitely

84%

Probably

14%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous questions) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

69

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

20%

Donald Trump, the Republican

36%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

44%

(Combined Senate results) If this year’s general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

... the Democrat

51%

... the Republican

43%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

(Ask only in WI) If this year’s general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date

Pop.

Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat

Eric Hovde [huv-dee], the Republican

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

51%

43%

6%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

49

40

10

(Responses reclassified by age group) In what year were you born?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

18-29

11%

30-44

19%

45-64

33%

65+

34%

Refused

4%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

Grade school

2%

High school

30%

Vocational or trade school

7%

Some college, no degree

15%

Associate’s degree

11%

Bachelor's degree

22%

Graduate or professional degree

12%

[VOL] Refused

<1%

Would you consider yourself:

[READ LIST]

[IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

661

White

85%

Hispanic or Latino

4%

Black or African American

4%

Asian

<1%

American Indian or Alaska Native

<1%

Middle Eastern or North African

<.5%

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander

<.5%

[VOL] Some other race (specify)

2%

[VOL] More than one race

1%

[VOL] Refused

2%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Democrat

32%

Republican

27%

Independent

36%

Another party

2%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

237

The Democratic Party

40%

The Republican Party

46%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

14%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

The Democratic Party

49%

The Republican Party

46%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Donald Trump

40%

Joe Biden

48%

I did not vote

7%

[VOL] Someone else

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

520

Donald Trump

43%

Joe Biden

52%

[VOL] Someone else

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

26%

19%

9%

43%

3%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

16

25

13

44

3

Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023

R.V.

17

24

11

46

2

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.

Donald Trump

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date

Pop.

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

[VOL] Have not heard of

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

33%

13%

3%

51%

0%

1%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

22

19

10

47

2

Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023

R.V.

18

19

14

48

<1

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very favorable

33%

Somewhat favorable

17%

Somewhat unfavorable

8%

Very unfavorable

39%

[VOL] Have not heard of

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

JD Vance

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very favorable

22%

Somewhat favorable

15%

Somewhat unfavorable

9%

Very unfavorable

39%

[VOL] Have not heard of

6%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

9%

(Asked starting Aug. 6) Tim Walz [walls]

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

259

Very favorable

26%

Somewhat favorable

14%

Somewhat unfavorable

6%

Very unfavorable

28%

[VOL] Have not heard of

13%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

13%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

A lot

69%

Some

22%

Not much

7%

None at all

3%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

Date

Pop.

Very enthusiastic

Somewhat enthusiastic

Not very enthusiastic

Not at all enthusiastic

[VOL] Don’t know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

63%

23%

8%

6%

<.5%

Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023

R.V.

51

25

16

8

<1

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date

Pop.

Very satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Not too satisfied

Not at all satisfied

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

45%

31%

13%

10%

2%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

24

33

22

19

2

Which comes closest to how you feel about the Republican candidate for vice president, JD Vance?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Enthusiastic

22%

Satisfied, but not enthusiastic

23%

Dissatisfied, but not upset

27%

Angry

22%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

6%

(Asked starting Aug. 6) Which comes closest to how you feel about the Democratic candidate for vice president, Tim Walz [walls]?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

259

Enthusiastic

26%

Satisfied, but not enthusiastic

25%

Dissatisfied, but not upset

22%

Angry

17%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

11%

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

Date

Pop.

Too conservative

Not conservative enough

Not too far either way

[VOL] Don’t know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

32%

10%

47%

10%

Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023

R.V.

29

9

56

6

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Too liberal or progressive

47%

Not liberal or progressive enough

7%

Not too far either way

44%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

If Donald Trump won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Date

Pop.

Nothing would change

Minor changes to how things work

Major changes to how things work

He would tear down the system completely

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

1%

12%

46%

38%

2%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

3

23

45

26

2

(If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date

Pop.

Very good for the country

Somewhat good for the country

Somewhat bad for the country

Very bad for the country

Neither good nor bad

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know /Refused

Aug. 5-8, 2024

R.V.

36%

7%

4%

44%

6%

<.5%

1%

2%

Apr. 28-May 7, 2024

R.V.

29

13

6

33

12

1

3

2

(Without combination) (If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

547

Very good for the country

37%

Somewhat good for the country

8%

Somewhat bad for the country

4%

Very bad for the country

46%

Neither good nor bad

6%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

If Kamala Harris won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or she would tear down the system completely?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Nothing would change

12%

Minor changes to how things work

43%

Major changes to how things work

20%

She would tear down the system completely

23%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

(If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very good for the country

26%

Somewhat good for the country

15%

Somewhat bad for the country

7%

Very bad for the country

30%

Neither good nor bad

7%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change

12%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused

2%

(Without combination) (If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system) Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

491

Very good for the country

30%

Somewhat good for the country

18%

Somewhat bad for the country

8%

Very bad for the country

35%

Neither good nor bad

9%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

34%

Somewhat well

18%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

37%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Has the temperament to be an effective president

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

41%

Somewhat well

16%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

32%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Is intelligent

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

49%

Somewhat well

15%

Not too well

9%

Not at all well

23%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

Has a clear vision for the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

31%

Somewhat well

23%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

33%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

Is honest

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

34%

Somewhat well

20%

Not too well

9%

Not at all well

33%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

34%

Somewhat well

12%

Not too well

7%

Not at all well

47%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Has the temperament to be an effective president

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

26%

Somewhat well

19%

Not too well

7%

Not at all well

47%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

Is intelligent

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

34%

Somewhat well

21%

Not too well

10%

Not at all well

34%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Has a clear vision for the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

43%

Somewhat well

16%

Not too well

8%

Not at all well

33%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<1%

Is honest

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very well

20%

Somewhat well

22%

Not too well

9%

Not at all well

49%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)

24%

[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living

3%

[VOL] Abortion

16%

[VOL] Immigration

12%

[VOL] Crime

<.5%

[VOL] Gun policies

<.5%

[VOL] Health care

2%

[VOL] Education

<1%

[VOL] Foreign policy

4%

[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine

<.5%

[VOL] China

0%

[VOL] Climate change

1%

[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption

9%

[VOL] Election integrity

<.5%

[VOL] Equality/inequality

2%

[VOL] Polarization/division

<1%

[VOL] Racism/racial issues

<.5%

[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate

4%

[VOL] Character/competence of candidate

7%

[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians

<.5%

[VOL] Taxes

<1%

[VOL] Student loans

<.5%

[VOL] Other (specify)

6%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

4%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat

50%

Donald Trump, the Republican

47%

[VOL] Neither candidate

2%

[VOL] Someone else; specify

<.5%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

1%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

The economy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Kamala Harris

46%

Donald Trump

52%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

Abortion

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Kamala Harris

59%

Donald Trump

37%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

5%

Immigration

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Kamala Harris

46%

Donald Trump

52%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

2%

Democracy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Kamala Harris

55%

Donald Trump

42%

[VOL] Don’t know/Refused

3%

What single news source do you turn to most often?

This could include a social media site or a news site.

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

[VOL] Fox News

14%

[VOL] CNN

8%

[VOL] MSNBC

4%

[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS

3%

[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality

2%

[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC

18%

[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)

5%

[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal

7%

[VOL] Local print or online news organizations

<.5%

[VOL] Social media

15%

[VOL] Friends and family

<.5%

[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)

<1%

[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)

4%

[VOL] Conservative news sites

1%

[VOL] Newsmax

1%

[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)

<.5%

[VOL] Doesn’t consume news

2%

[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)

10%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Often

47%

Sometimes

19%

Rarely

13%

Never

20%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Often

10%

Sometimes

8%

Rarely

8%

Never

52%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media

20%

[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

(Without combination) (If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

452

Often

13%

Sometimes

11%

Rarely

10%

Never

66%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

<.5%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?

[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Very liberal

12%

Somewhat liberal

13%

Moderate

38%

Somewhat conservative

17%

Very conservative

19%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

2%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people]

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Under $25,000

7%

At least $25,000 but under $50,000

16%

At least $50,000 but under $100,000

30%

At least $100,000 but under $200,000

29%

$200,000 or more

10%

[VOL] Refused

8%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Catholic

25%

Protestant (Christian)

25%

Mormon (LDS)

<.5%

Jewish

<1%

Muslim

<1%

[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)

13%

[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox

0%

Some other religion (specify)

<1%

No religious affiliation

31%

[VOL] Don't know/Refused

3%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Yes

19%

No

20%

[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused

59%

[VOL] Refused

1%

(Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

223

Yes

48%

No

49%

[VOL] Refused

4%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Date:

Aug. 5-8, 2024

Pop.:

R.V.

N:

562

Yes

30%

No

70%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin from Aug. 5 to 8, and 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Aug. 6 to 9.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 237,000 calls to nearly 118,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls in Michigan and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Aug. 5 to 8, 2024, and from Aug. 6 to 9, 2024, in Pennsylvania. In all, 1,973 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error among registered voters for each state poll is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin. Among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.2 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 90 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 13 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model) in Michigan, whether the respondent voted in 2020 in Wisconsin, and the voter file age of the respondent in Pennsylvania.

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• The average recalled 2020 vote choice of respondents to the last three New York Times/Siena College polls, including the results of this poll before the recalled vote weight, in Wisconsin.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.17 for registered voters and 1.26 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, 1.25 for registered voters and 1.28 for the likely electorate in Wisconsin, and 1.33 for registered voters and 1.46 for likely voters in Michigan.

For the sample of completed interviews, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.3 points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.5 points for the likely electorate in Michigan, plus or minus 4.5 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.6 points for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.7 points for both registered voters and the likely electorate in Wisconsin.The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.33 for the likely electorate in Pennsylvania, 1.3 for registered voters and 1.32 for the likely electorate in Wisconsin, and 1.46 for registered voters and 1.57 for the likely electorate in Michigan.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group

Unweighted All R.V.s

Weighted All R.V.s

Weighted Likely Electorate

N

Gender

Men

47%

48%

48%

311

Women

51

51

51

340

Age

18 to 29

13%

11%

10%

83

30 to 44

21

19

18

142

45 to 64

30

33

34

195

65 and older

33

34

34

220

Education

High school

18%

32%

31%

117

Some college

36

32

32

239

College

28

22

23

183

Post-graduate

18

12

12

118

Home Ownership (L2 Model)

Likely renter

25%

22%

20%

168

Likely homeowner

58

64

66

382

Unknown

17

15

14

111

Marital Status (L2 Model)

Married

47%

52%

54%

312

Unknown

53

48

46

349

Party (Self-Reported)

Democrat

32%

32%

32%

212

Republican

24

27

27

160

Independent

36

34

34

241

Party (Based on L2 Data)

Democrat

33%

32%

32%

218

Republican

37

38

39

244

Other

30

30

29

199

Race (L2 Model)

White

76%

75%

76%

502

Hispanic

4

4

3

25

Black

3

3

3

23

Asian

1

1

1

7

Other

2

2

2

14

Race (L2 Model)

White

76%

75%

76%

502

Nonwhite

10

10

9

69

State Region

Dane

11%

11%

11%

70

East/North

47

47

48

309

Milwaukee City

8

7

7

52

Milwaukee Suburbs

19

19

19

125

Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)

Voted in last midterm and in a primary

62%

64%

68%

413

Voted in last two midterms

23

22

21

150

Voted in last general, no midterm

8

9

8

52

Did not vote in last general or midterm

2

2

1

16

New registrant

5

3

3

30

Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Wisconsin (2024)

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