Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Friday, October 4th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon (2024)

The fall Keeneland Meet is front loaded with high quality stakes races, designed to be important prep races for the Breeders’ Cup next month at Del Mar. The Opening Day card offers three “Win and You’re In” Races for the biggest weekend of racing in Thoroughbred Racing. As always, the racing here is top notch with some highly competitive fields. First post for the first card of the meet is 1:00 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll pop the cork with a $62,500 N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. There’s only seven entered, but this race is wide open. Ask Arthur (#3) ran a big race last month at Churchill when facing a $50K N2L claiming field. He went off at 26-1 in that race, which I feel, on paper, was deeper than this race. He has good tactical speed, so I think he’ll be able to keep the recent maiden breaker, Bernin Hot (#5), honest on the front end. His last three races have been sharp, so I think it’s reasonable to expect him to be right in the thick of things once again. Overstatement (#1) ships in from Horseshoe Indianapolis after a respectable third place finish against a decent allowance field there. There are some caveats with this one, as his only win came on the turf in a maiden claiming race at Ellis. His speed figures have been stronger on the dirt though. He ran a decent race in a one turn mile at Churchill three starts ago, so I do think he can compete at this circuit. Parkway (#7) has four straight races in a row where he’s notched Beyer Figures of 75 or greater. As the par goes in this race, that’s the kind of number that should get the job done. He definitely fits from that perspective. On the flip side, the only race that he’s ever really been competitive in was an off the turf maiden claiming race where he broke his maiden. He finished four or more lengths behind the winner in every other start in his career. It’s going to come down to price for me. I can’t play him as more than a backup if he is favored in this spot. I

Race 2:

The first of many two year old races at this prestigious meet is a maiden special weight going one mile on the lawn. This race drew an overflow field of 16 runners, but 12 will be the maximum number of starters. I think you have to play close attention to the two horses coming out of stakes races. The speed figures are slightly better for West Beach (#8), who just missed in the Juvenile Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs in his last start. However, I think Test Score (#3) has faced significantly better fields in his two races. He had to deal with Zulu Kingdom in the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga in his last start. That one kept his undefeated record intact by winning the Pilgrim on a yielding course at Belmont at the Big A last weekend. Graham Motion has the son of Lookin at Lucky working well at Fair Hill. He;s going to face a much larger field than he’s dealt with in New York in his first two starts, but I see him as the one they’ll have to beat. Helicity (#9) is interesting to me in this spot. He ran a solid second place in July at Saratoga. The plan was to bring him back in a race at the end of the meet there, however, he was stuck on the AE list on closing weekend, so Jack Sisterson had to opt for Plan B. That was a maiden special weight at Gulfstream on the synthetic course. He was a heavy favorite in that spot and he ran an even second. I liked his turf race better and after pairing his Beyer Figures in his last two starts, I think there’s a chance that we’ll see him move forward. A lot of money and attention will likely be paid to Scorpius (#1), who is a full brother to Mandaloun, who was placed first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Him and his full brother, Mullion, have big races on dirt, but neither ever tried the turf. The dam was a multiple stakes winner on the grass, so there’s reason to believe he’ll respond on the lawn. However, his dirt works are strong, so I’m a little puzzled seeing him on debut in a race that’s not on the dirt. Instead, I’ll try to get a little value by including High Ceiling (#12) for Joe Sharp and Frankie Dettori. Dettori rode West Beach at Kentucky Downs, but Gaffalione winds up on that runner. He’s bred to handle the lawn and if he’s able to avoid losing too much ground going into the first turn, I think he’s a horse that could make some noise at better odds. I’ll also back up with West Beach, who has been competitive in all three career turf starts. The foundation is there for a barn that knows how to win on this circuit. I just think the price will be a little too low for me with him. I’d probably need closer to 5-1 to be in on him to win.

Race 3:

All eyes are going to be on Upon a Star (#11) in this maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going seven furlongs plus on the Beard Course. She put up a huge speed figure for Brad Cox when making her debut at six furlongs in February at the Fair Grounds. She went to the sidelines after that race and has been on the bench since. She turned in a dazzling workout two weeks ago, stopping the clock in 46:2 for a four furlong drill. Her full sibling debuted a winner on the turf last month at Kentucky Downs. She is strictly the one to beat in this race, but she’s being asked to go a longer distance when making her first start in eight months. Cox has great numbers off the bench, and this one looks ready to fire, but I see her going into the starting gate at even money, which is lower than I’m willing to accept. She’s going to be a part of the vertical and horizontal wagers for me in this spot, but I’m hopeful to find value elsewhere. Al Stall sends out Lord I Wonder (#6) with Flavien Prat to ride and Steve Asmussen sends out Islander (#9) with Luis Saez in the irons. Both horses are cutting back from the funky one mile dirt distance at the Spa. We’ve seen many horses run poorly in those races and come back with a better effort. Both of these colts have very similar running lines. Both horses finished in the money when making their debuts at seven furlongs. Lord I Wonder did so at Saratoga and Islander ran at Churchill. Both ran competitive races, earning similar Beyer Speed Figures for their efforts. They met at Saratoga on 8/14, and both were well-beaten, with Lord I Wonder finishing about three lengths better than Islander. Lord I Wonder didn’t break as quickly as I think Stall would have hoped. She was in behind runners on the turn and made an early move to try to muscle her way through on the rail. She was shut off and had to tap on the brakes. She’s a big horse that might not be as agile as Ortiz would have liked. She appeared to exert a lot of energy while stuck behind runners and never really was able to get out. When they hit the top of the stretch, she was empty, and allowed to ease up, while maintaining 4th. Islander was wide going into the first turn, and probably covered more ground than her rival in that race. I would have liked to see her show more interest though. One thing to keep in mind is that Steve Asmussen has won at a 17% clip this year and an 18% over the last five years. However, he’s only won 11% of his races in the last year at Keeneland and only 9% over the last five years. He has not been able to replicate his national success at this track. Considering that, Islander is more of a backup for me. I prefer the effort from Lord I Wonder, and I’ll make him the top pick, but I’ll likely need the odds disparity to widen between him and the favorite. There’s a pair of first time starters that are worth thinking about in this race. Cherie DeVaux sends out Prodigieux (#4) and Brendan Walsh sends out Thanksgiving (#12). I think both horses are promising, but based off workouts and trainer history, I think Prodigieux might need this race before we see what she’s made off. Thanksgiving has been working more consistently in the AM, doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the Tapeta at Turfway. The dam was a stakes winner on the turf, but both of her two foals to race were winners on debut. She’s a full sister to Girl Daddy, who won on debut at Ellis before winning the Pocohontas in her second career start. Sosua is a half sibling that also won at her first two starts in sprints. She’s worth using in this spot as well.

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance spot. Just like in the previous race, Brad Cox sends out a Stonsetreet runner that ran a big race on debut and went to the shelf. Eclatant (#6) was a strong debut winner in a fast race back in June at Churchill. She had two works in the summer after that race before missing about two months of training. She came back to the work tab, and like her stablemate in the prior race, she drilled a fast bullet work two weeks ago, signaling that she’s ready to roll. I think she has a similar running style to the horses that look to the horses that are dropping out of stakes company, Empirical Mischief (#5) and Tiz Purple (#11). I think she can stalk the early pace and outfinish this group. I see her being tough to beat in this spot. If someone can run her down, Tapit First (#7) for Steve Asmussen, may have the best chance to do so. She was a winner on debut here in the spring for the early baby races. You don’t see many Tapit runners going 4 ½ furlongs, but she closed well to get up for the win. She came back to the work tab in August and will face winners for the first time. She clearly likes the course here and I think she’ll get a favorable set up. I prefer her underneath, but she’s the most logical backup in the field. If her odds float up in the 10-1 or 12-1 range, I’d be willing to play her to win, assuming she looked the part in the paddock and while warming up.

Race 5:

The N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the lawn, will be the focal point of many horizontal wager players. The Early Pick-5 ends here and both the All-Turf Pick-3 and the Pick-6 will begin with this race. It’s a little wild to think that a 30-1 longshot that is cross-entered in a $14,500 starter allowance race this afternoon at Belterra is going to dictate how I play this race, but that seems to be the case. I don’t think For the Biscuit (#7) has any real chance of winning this race, but if she runs, I think it will greatly impact the chances of Stylish Sue (#9). Stylish Sue would be the lone speed in this race, if not for this potential Ohio invader. For the Biscuit has only one real move in this race should she make the trip into Kentucky, and that’s to go to the front. The best weapon for Stylish Sue in a race like this is her early speed. She didn’t get to employ this tactic two back and she folded up like a cheap suit on a good course in Indiana. She ran a solid race at this level at Kentucky Downs when going a longer distance last out. She got tired in the late stages of that one when Frankie Dettori was riding for the first time. He had her walking on the front end in that race, but when they quickened in the final quarter mile, she was struggling to keep pace. I think the nine furlong trip on a flat course and this is the kind of race where Dettori can be so dangerous. This filly won three starts in a row prior to losing in her last two starts. She cleared the N1X at Churchill, so we know can compete on this circuit. I’m designating her as the top pick, but I’m doing so under the condition that For the Biscuit doesn’t make the trip. If that filly does show up, Stylish Sue becomes more of a backup play at best. Should that scenario come into play, Olivia Maralda (#10) should sit the garden trip. She ran a strong second when coming from the back of the pack at this level in April. She ran a strong second in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita in May. She’s struggled in her last two starts, both of which came against stronger stakes fields. She didn’t get a great trip in New Jersey in the Matchmaker. She was shuffled to the back of the pack in a race where a Frankie Dettori ridden horse stole the race on the front end. She got caught wide at Kentucky Downs in the One Dreamer in her last start. We’ve seen several horses run subpar races there and come back with strong efforts when coming back to Keeneland. She’s the class of the field, she’s getting class relief, and she figures to get a solid trip. Sanctify (#5) is a three year old filly that has shown improvement since getting on the turf this summer. She was a dominating winner at this distance when making her turf debut in June at Churchill. She ran well in the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis when getting a less than ideal trip. She came back 20 days later to clear the N1X allowance condition before trying stakes company in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. She drew the outside post and was near the back of the pack throughout the race. I think this distance suits her well and I think we’re going to see her be competitive with this group. I prefer her underneath, but she’d be one to think about upgrading if For the Biscuit runs.

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a strong N1X allowance race for three year olds and up going seven furlongs. There’s two horses that are going to be the focal point for me. I think Montalcino (#2) could be a horse with a bright future for Cherie DeVaux. Her horses aren’t known for being fully cranked on debut, but this three year old Take Charge Indy colt was loaded when he was unveiled at the Spa on closing weekend. He was geared down late, winning with ease that afternoon. DeVaux’s horses often improve second time out and she moves him up to the first level allowance condition. She’s had a lot of success with Jose Ortiz at Keeneland and I think they’re teaming up with a good one here. The alternative for me in this spot is the improving three year old, Linebacker (#3). He’s making his third start off the layoff and he’s finding his niche in these middle distance sprints. He ran a pair of sharp races in the fall before a tough winter at Oaklawn. He had a pair of tough trip races in two turn routes. He broke slowly, allowing an Asmussen runner to get a golden trip on New Year’s Eve. He weaved through traffic to secure second that day and that effort was good enough to run in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes as a maiden. I thought he was live in that race on a day when the world was introduced to Mystik Dan. However, he was caught wide on both turns on a day where the rail was the place to be.

Race 7, The Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes:

The first of three graded stakes races is a six furlong sprint that is likely to produce a starter or two for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint next month. There’s an upstart speedster taking on a pair of runners that are coming into their own in their five and six year old campaigns. Brad Cox sends out Federal Judge (#1) who has drawn the rail and will likely be sent hard for the lead by Flavien Prat. He’s made the lead when going 6 ½ and 7 furlongs in his last two starts at Saratoga. The pace was solid in both races, but when shortening up, there’s a good chance that he’s going to need to run a sub 22 opening quarter in a spot like this. Unless there’s evidence of a speed bias in this spot, I’m going to favor the veterans over him for this foray back into graded stakes company. I’ll place him on the C line as a deeper saver here, but if we’re seeing inside speed have a lot of success, I’ll make the needed adjustments. Here Mi Song (#2) is a six year old gelding that makes his first start at Keeneland since pulling off the 11-1 upset in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes in April 2023. Since then, he’s had two wins in his last eight starts, both of which came in the same 6 ½ furlong stakes race at Ellis in 2023 and 2024. At six years old, he ran his first triple digit Beyer Speed Figure two starts ago and then he came back to do it again last month at Churchill. He runs well at Keeneland, winning twice and finishing second twice in four career starts on this oval. I think he can stalk the pace and grind by the pacesetter in the stretch. Nakatomi (#4) has bloomed into a very nice sprinter for Wesley Ward, who always targets Keeneland races for his horses. He followed a similar pattern coming into this race last year where he ran out of real estate late, finishing a game second. He came back to run a strong race to be third at long odds in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He wasn’t great at Tampa and in Dubai over the winter, but he was excellent in the Vanderbilt in July, earning his first Grade 1 victory. He’s been working well since that race over this oval. He showed more tactical speed last out and not allowing himself to fall too far behind during the first quarter mile will be the key to his success today.

Race 8, The Grade 2 Jessamine Presented by Keeneland Sales:

This is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and there’s a overflow field of 16 entered. Only 12 will run and there’s a good filly, Virgin Colada (#15), that appears to be stuck on the outside looking in. She’s one to think about if she draws in, and one that I’ll be using in some fashion, depending on who she’ll replace. I think May Day Ready (#8) has a big shot in this race after winning her first two starts for Joseph Lee. Lee has a small stable so having the opportunity to train and develop a horse that KatieRich Stables LLC paid $325K for is a big deal. Their trust paid dividends when Frankie Dettori guided her to a 25-1 upset when debuting against a good field at Saratoga. Her earnings nearly doubled her purchase price when she scored a handy victory in the Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs. She’s beaten large fields and she’s gotten great rides from Frankie Dettori while doing so. She paired her first two Beyer Figures and I think she’s going to take a step forward while getting back to two turns. Destino d’Oro (#6) might have been the most impressive two year old maiden winner at the Kentucky Downs meet. She came over the top with a powerful late move and was eased up late, while clear of her rivals. Not many horses won with that kind of trip at that meet. Brad Cox’s runners tend to improve in their second start, so the ceiling seems to be high for this daughter of Bolt d’Oro. Totally Justified (#9) broke her maiden in the PG Johnson Stakes, beating Virgin Colada. She was closer to the pace, which wasn’t very aggressive that day. She’ll likely be a little farther back today with the number of stretch out sprinters signed on. She’s bred to handle the turf and she definitely took a step forward in her grass debut. I see her as a horse that can improve in her second turf try today. On deeper tickets, I’ll include another Kentucky Downs maiden winner, Correto (#12). Graham Motion does very well getting horses to run strong races on the turf when routing for the first time. I don’t love the outside draw for her today, but she’s bred to get better as the turf races get longer. I think she’s more likely to land in the bottom on an exacta or trifecta than she is to be first. However, if her odds float up, I’d be willing to take a bigger chance.

Note that NYRA is reporting thatCorreto will stay in New York in run in the Miss Grillo Stakes and scratch out of this race. (UPDATED 10/3/24, 10:38 PM)

Race 9, The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades:

The first Grade 1 of the meet is for two year old fillies, looking to book their ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar next month. Brad Cox sends out runners in six races today and there’s a chance that he could be saddling the post time favorite in as many as five of those races. He sends out the winner of the Grade 1 Spinaway, Immersive (#8). She was game in victory that day finishing in front of Quietside (#7) by a little more than a length on a sloppy course. The fact that both fillies are entered in this Grade 1 race at two turns instead of the one turn Frizette in New York tells me that both trainers expect these fillies to improve with the added distance. Both are going to be on my tickets, but they’ll have to answer the two turn question like everyone else in here. I’ll try for a price on top and make Rich City Girl (#4) the top pick. She was a winner in a lucrative allowance race at Kentucky Downs last out. Prior to that she ran two solid efforts on the main track. She looks like a horse that can handle either surface and she’s run three credible races, finishing second in a seven furlong stakes race at Ellis two back. I think she’s likely to get a better trip than the two short priced runners.

Race 10:

My strongest opinion on the card comes in the nightcap, which is a conditioned $130K allowance race for three year old fillies, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. This race is loaded with early speed with as many as six horses possibly vying for early supremacy. I think that pace battle is going to catch up with many and set the table for Cloudwalker (#7) and Tyler Gaffalione to come storming home. She tried two turns in the Winter Memories Stakes at Belmont at the Big A last month and she was not herself. She has been much more competitive at this distance though, finishing a close third in the Coronation Cup Stakes at the Spa two starts back. Her morning line price of 4-1 feels like the right number for me. Baraye (#6), who is the slight morning line favorite, bested her in allowance company in April on this course, but I think the pace scenario will allow for Cloudwalker to turn the tables today. Niki Nine Doors (#8) is the backup plan for me here. Her best shot might be to get first run on the top choice. She won the Pea Patch Stakes at Ellis at this distance two back and was a game second behind Moonlit Lady (#3) last out. With speed to that one’s inside and outside, I think that one will be hard pressed to repeat that effort. Niki Nine Doors meanwhile comes back to the course where she broke her maiden back in April.

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.