Grammys 2026: Pop Field Predictions (Part 5) (2025)

August 31, 2025 at 3:00 pm#1206317051Reply

Marcos

Participant

Huerco wrote:

I think you are underestimating Tate McRae. She’s not win competitive but I don’t think she’s going to have any problem with BPVA nomination. She established herself as a known pop star and she got some hits with this album. She’s also performing at the VMAs and it makes me think she will campaign. Pop voters love a new successful star. It kinda reminds me of when they nominated Demi Lovato for Confident.

She’s also on a sold out tour during first-round voting, it’s something to look out for.

I can see a nod for her if it’s a six-noms line-up. Miley came and went but she’s still ahead of Tate (recent win + Columbia), and Coldplay have a consistent Pop field history.

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August 31, 2025 at 3:23 pm#1206317068Reply

Juju

Participant

Pre-submission predictions

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
That’s So True — Gracie Abrams
DAISIES — Justin Bieber
Manchild — Sabrina Carpenter
Anxiety — Doechii
How Bad Do U Want Me — Lady Gaga
(DtMF — Bad Bunny)

Idk what to make of Anxiety. It went viral + hit #1 on Pop radio, but it feels forgotten IMO. It helps that Doechii blew up this year, and this is her Pop crossover.

I want to have Benito in, but despite DTMF being a bigger hit than Moscow Mule, Un Verano’s era felt like a bigger phenomenon. I’m predicting some voters will look for Gaga, anticipating Abracadabra, and, whether it’s submitted or not, will check her off anyway.

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
What a Girl Wants (Live – Spotify Anniversaries Version) — Christina Aguilera featuring Sabrina Carpenter
WAY IT IS — Justin Bieber & Gunna
ALL MY LOVE — Coldplay
Killah — Lady Gaga featuring Gesaffelstein
APT. — ROSÉ & Bruno Mars
(Defying Gravity — Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande)

I’m not sure Xtina will even submit, but it’s a safe nom if she does. I’m gonna include Justin in Pop until his submissions show otherwise. I wanna include a Kendrick/SZA collab, but their songs seem likelier in R&B/Rap.

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
SWAG — Justin Bieber
Man’s Best Friend — Sabrina Carpenter
Moon Music — Coldplay
Something Beautiful — Miley Cyrus
MAYHEM — Lady Gaga
(So Close to What — Tate McRae)

I’m including the veteran higher on the ballot than the rising star since that happens most of the time. I hope Charli submits Brat remix album here for the fun of it.

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August 31, 2025 at 3:34 pm#1206317073Reply

rebrab

Participant

What are everyone’s thoughts on The Subway’s chances at this point? I expected it to have more longevity especially after its massive debut numbers, but it’s falling quickly on the charts and no one’s talking about it anymore. Could get a nom just for a name check since she won BNA last year.

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August 31, 2025 at 3:49 pm#1206317082Reply

Huerco

Participant

I’m predicting The Subway to get in but I wouldn’t be surprised if it missed. She did zero promo. The song is not attached to a big era. Unless the song has a huge passion, it will probably miss. But I think pop voters just like her and this song is so Grammy friendly.

I don’t see Doechii at all tbh. I would bet on Ordinary before. My current Top 5 is Gracie, Justin, Sabrina, Gaga and Chappell with Bad Bunny 6th and Alex Warren 7th

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August 31, 2025 at 3:58 pm#1206317089Reply

Giordano_Bruno_1

Participant

Wouldnt brat remix fall in the eletronic album?

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August 31, 2025 at 4:38 pm#1206317118Reply

M

Participant

The way there are only 2 locks in Pop Solo lol: Manchild and Daisies.

Good luck predicting the other 3. It could go in any direction.

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August 31, 2025 at 7:12 pm#1206317209Reply

Liprae

Participant

I just saw some guy on TikTok say that he thinks Hurry Uo Tomorrow by The Weeknd will win Best Pop Vocal Album. I always thought it would go into Best Progressive R&B Album. What do you guys think? Is Hurry Up Tomorrow likely to be nominated in Best Pop Vocal Album or Best Progressive R&B Album?

IM THE QUEEN OF RAP, YOUNG ARIANA RUN POP

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August 31, 2025 at 11:38 pm#1206317295Reply

Wednesday

Participant

Album Release Week — Hot 100 Entries (Top 10):

MBF (early prediction):
#3 Manchild
#4 Tears

SWAG:
#2 Daisies

Mayhem:
#2 DWAS

So Close To What:
N/A

The race looks like this: Sabrina with two solo pure pop hits, Gaga with one song tucked at the end of her album and Justin with a single projected to fall out of the Top 10 today. Once again, Sabrina proves herself the pop hitmaker of the year, as the others barely register. For the record, Sports Car was #16 on album release, Yukon #17 and Abracadabra #19.

The Triple Pop Crown of the Year:
Pop Radio Queen ✅
Hot 100 Queen ✅
Billboard 200 Queen ✅

= Pop Vocal Winner.
💋 💋 💋

Find the Khia:
(2015-2025)
2 solo weeks Top 10 on Hot 100

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September 1, 2025 at 1:32 am#1206317337Reply

CommonSense

Participant

Wednesday wrote:

Album Release Week — Hot 100 Entries (Top 10):

MBF (early prediction):
#3 Manchild
#4 Tears

SWAG:
#2 Daisies

Mayhem:
#2 DWAS

So Close To What:
N/A

The race looks like this: Sabrina with two solo pure pop hits, Gaga with one song tucked at the end of her album and Justin with a single projected to fall out of the Top 10 today. Once again, Sabrina proves herself the pop hitmaker of the year, as the others barely register. For the record, Sports Car was #16 on album release, Yukon #17 and Abracadabra #19.

The Triple Pop Crown of the Year:
Pop Radio Queen ✅
Hot 100 Queen ✅
Billboard 200 Queen ✅

= Pop Vocal Winner.
💋 💋 💋

It tanked. What a disappointment and I think it needed to do better than this to beat Gaga.

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September 1, 2025 at 1:50 am#1206317340Reply

Wednesday

Participant

Extra:
Apple Music – Global Daily Chart
#2 Tears (=)
#3 Manchild (+1)
#6 My Man on Willpower
#8 Sugar Talking
#10 Nobodys Son
#11 When Did You Get Hot?
#12 We Almost Broke Up Again
#13 Go Go Juice
#16 Never Getting Laid
#19 House Tour
#20 Goodbye
#27 Don’t Worry I will make you Worry

Entire album Top20 except one song.

Apple Music – Global Daily Chart 9/3 (First Sunday update)

#4 DWAS (=)
#8 Abracadabra (-1)
#13 Vanish Into You (+2)
#32 Garden of Eden (-4)
#41 Perfect Celebrity (-4)
#43 How Bad Do U Want Me (+2)
#54 Zombieboy (-7)
#58 Disease (-4)
#66 Killah (-10)
#69 LoveDrug (-12)
#72 Shadow of a Man (-5)
#95 Don’t Call Tonight (-17)

Mans Best Friend will have better Sunday Spotify hold than Mayhem.

Translation = Sabrina is winning BPVA.
👑 💋 💋 💋

Find the Khia:
(2015-2025)
2 solo weeks Top 10 on Hot 100

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September 1, 2025 at 2:05 am#1206317342Reply

ariana's yuh

Participant

I think Hurry Up Tomorrow is almost certainly going to Progressive R&B Album. That’s where all of the Weeknd’s previous albums have gone.

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September 1, 2025 at 2:40 am#1206317351Reply

Huerco

Participant

Hurry Up Tomorrow is probably going R&B. If he sends it to Pop it’s NOT a lock. They ignored him in the past with bigger projects. I wonder if the Academy will ask voters to vote for The Weeknd

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September 1, 2025 at 5:28 am#1206317427Reply

Gucci

Participant

Honey, Hurry Up Tomorrow by The Weeknd will compete in Best Progressive R&B Album. No question about it.

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September 1, 2025 at 5:50 am#1206317437Reply

Gucci

Participant

Honey, September Predictions (Pre-Submissions):

2026 Grammy Awards + Pop contenders = 🤢🤮

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (BARF!)
Justin Bieber, “Daisies” (BARF!)
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild” (BARF!)
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (BARF!)

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
Christina Aguilera feat. Sabrina Carpenter, “What a Girl Wants (Live)”
Coldplay, “All My Love” (BARF!)
Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande, “Defying Gravity” (BARF!)
Elton John & Brandi Carlile, “Who Believes In Angels?” (BARF!)
Rosé & Bruno Mars, “Apt.” (BARF!)

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Justin Bieber, Swag (BARF!)
Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend (BARF!)
Coldplay, Moon Music (BARF!)
Miley Cyrus, Something Beautiful (BARF!)
Lady Gaga, Mayhem (BARF!)
Tate McRae, So Close to What (BARF!)

BEST DANCE POP RECORDING
Charli XCX & Troye Sivan, “Talk Talk” (BARF!)
Disco Lines & Tinashe, “No Broke Boys” (BARF!)
David Guetta & Sia, “Beautiful People” (BARF!)
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” (BARF!)
Kylie Minogue, “Lights Camera Action” (BARF!)

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